Will Boeing cancel the 737 MAX 10 over certification delays?

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Boeing May Cancel the 737 MAX 10 if Certification Lags Behind New Safety Standards

Boeing's Chief Executive Officer, Dave Calhoun, has indicated that the company might cancel the 737 MAX 10 program if it fails to secure regulatory certification before new crew alerting system standards come into effect in December. Calhoun described the potential shelving of the MAX 10 as "not that threatening," suggesting it is an acceptable outcome given the company's recent challenges. This scenario hinges on a December 2020 US law that mandates the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to certify aircraft equipped with an alerting system meeting updated standards, a requirement the current MAX 10 configuration does not satisfy.
New Safety Mandate Deadline Looms

A critical deadline is approaching on December 27, 2022, when a US law enacted in December 2020 will require all newly certified aircraft to feature a flight crew alerting system designed to help pilots better manage and prioritize warnings during flight. The existing alerting system on the 737 MAX 10 shares characteristics with earlier MAX models and does not meet these new federal safety benchmarks. Boeing has historically advocated for the MAX 10's "commonality" with previous versions, which allows pilots already trained on earlier MAX variants to transition to the new model with minimal additional training.
Legislative Action or Program Cancellation

The only avenue to extend the deadline for the MAX 10's certification under the current legal framework is through new legislation passed by the US Congress. Without such an act of Congress, or if the FAA does not certify the aircraft before the December 27, 2022, deadline, Boeing faces the prospect of cancelling the program. The FAA has declined to provide a specific timeline for the MAX 10's certification, stating that safety considerations dictate the schedule for such projects and that they cannot comment on ongoing evaluations.
Potential Market Repercussions

The potential cancellation of the 737 MAX 10 could have significant ramifications for Boeing and the wider aviation market. Aviation experts estimate that such a move would result in approximately one year of lost production for the specific aircraft model. Furthermore, a discontinuation of the MAX 10 would likely benefit rival manufacturer Airbus, allowing it to strengthen its position and potentially gain further market share within the highly competitive narrow-body aircraft segment.

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Will Boeing cancel the 737 MAX 10 over certification delays?

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