Will defence procurement from South Korea offset US loss?

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Defence Procurement from South Korea May Not Fully Offset US Military Agreement Loss

The Philippine military's procurement of aircraft and vessels from countries like South Korea, alongside a stated intention to foster greater self-reliance and expand alliances with Australia and Japan, is presented as a strategic pivot following the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States. However, the extent to which these new acquisitions can fully compensate for the capabilities and support previously provided under the VFA remains a subject of considerable uncertainty, particularly in the context of regional security dynamics.
Shift Towards Non-US Defence Acquisitions

In the wake of the decision to terminate the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States, the Philippine military is actively seeking defence hardware from alternative sources, notably South Korea. This move signals a deliberate effort to diversify the Philippines' defence partnerships and procurement channels, aiming to build indigenous capabilities rather than relying on a single ally. The military chief has articulated that this shift is intended to spur greater initiative in developing the nation's own defence capacities.
Expansion of Alliances and Modernisation Efforts

The termination of the VFA is framed as an opportunity for the Philippines to enhance its modernisation programme and deepen engagement with other key regional players, specifically Australia and Japan, both of whom are allies of the United States. This strategic recalibration suggests a desire to forge a more independent foreign policy and a broader network of security cooperation. The military leadership has expressed that this transition is expected to foster a higher morale among soldiers, motivating them to accelerate the development of their own defence capabilities.
Potential Gaps in Capability and Support

While the procurement of defence assets from South Korea represents a concrete step towards military modernisation, the specific details regarding the types and quantities of equipment being acquired, as well as their technological parity and cost-effectiveness compared to US offerings, are not fully elaborated. Consequently, it is difficult to definitively assess whether these acquisitions can fully replicate the comprehensive support, interoperability, and advanced capabilities that the US provided under the VFA, which facilitated numerous joint exercises annually.
Strategic Implications for Regional Security

The long-term impact of this pivot on regional security remains a critical consideration. If the defence procurements from countries like South Korea do not adequately bridge the gap left by the cessation of US military cooperation, it could potentially create vulnerabilities. This is particularly pertinent given the broader geopolitical landscape, where US Defence Secretary Mark Esper has expressed concern that such decisions could be a step in the wrong direction amidst efforts to uphold international rules of order in the region.

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Will defence procurement from South Korea offset US loss?

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