Will G20 plastic consumption double by 2050 without new global policies?

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G20 Plastic Consumption May Double by 2050 Without New Global Policies

Plastic consumption across G20 countries is projected to nearly double from 261 million tonnes in 2019 to 451 million tonnes annually by 2050 if current trends persist without the implementation of new global policies. This projection is highlighted in a recent report that models the potential impact of measures being considered by United Nations plastic treaty negotiators.
Current Trajectory Indicates No Peak This Century

A report titled "Peak Plastics: Bending the consumption curve," produced by Back to Blue, an initiative of Economist Impact and The Nippon Foundation, indicates that without significant policy interventions, G20 countries are unlikely to reach a peak in plastic consumption within this century. The study, which incorporates input from bodies like the OECD and the World Bank, forecasts that the current trajectory will lead to a substantial increase in plastic use.
Ambitious Policies Crucial for Slowing Consumption

The research suggests that only the most ambitious policies currently under consideration by UN treaty negotiators, or a combination of such policies, will be effective in slowing the rise of plastic consumption. These potential interventions include bans on certain single-use plastic products, the implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes, and taxes on virgin plastic production. Even with a global ban on unnecessary single-use plastics, consumption is still projected to be 1.48 times higher in 2050 than in 2019.
Limited Impact of Individual Policy Scenarios

Modeling of individual policy scenarios reveals their limitations in significantly curbing consumption. For instance, mandatory EPR schemes are estimated to result in plastic consumption being 1.66 times higher by 2050 compared to 2019, a marginal improvement over the baseline scenario. Similarly, a tax on virgin plastic resin is projected to lead to a 1.57-fold increase in consumption by 2050, suggesting that such taxes would need to be considerably aggressive to be impactful.
Combined Policies and Stricter Measures Needed

Even a combination of the three policy approaches examined—bans on single-use plastics, EPR schemes, and virgin plastic taxes—still anticipates an increase in plastic consumption, albeit at a slower pace, reaching 1.25 times the 2019 level by 2050. The report implies that to effectively bend the consumption curve downwards, measures may need to be more stringent than those currently being negotiated, potentially including caps on virgin plastic production, which could face significant opposition.

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Will G20 plastic consumption double by 2050 without new global policies?

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