Will Kabul’s crime wave worsen as US and foreign forces withdraw?

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Kabul's Crime Wave Expected to Worsen Amid Foreign Force Withdrawal

Afghan authorities have escalated tactics by instructing Kabul’s police to fatally shoot armed criminals on sight, a measure implemented to combat a surge in violent crimes. This directive comes as the capital's police force faces immense pressure from rising crime rates, a situation anticipated to deteriorate further with the impending withdrawal of US and foreign forces from Afghanistan. The new shoot-to-kill order, issued by Interior Minister Massoud Andarabi, represents a significant shift from previous rules that allowed officers to fire only during direct confrontations.
Escalation of Tactics Against Rising Crime

The decision to authorize the fatal shooting of armed criminals marks a drastic intensification of measures against a growing wave of violent offenses. Previously, Kabul police were restricted to firing their weapons only when actively engaged in a direct clash with perpetrators. However, in response to the escalating crime situation, Minister Andarabi has now sanctioned a shoot-to-kill policy, aiming to assert greater control over the city's security. This change in protocol underscores the perceived severity of the current crime surge, which has reportedly led to increased instances of robbery, murder, and kidnapping.
Impact of Foreign Troop Withdrawal on Security

The withdrawal of US and foreign forces is projected to exacerbate the existing crime wave in Kabul. The capital’s police service, already strained by years of conflict and facing challenges such as being undertrained and underfunded, will be further exposed as international military support diminishes. This drawdown leaves the Afghan security apparatus with reduced capacity to manage internal threats, potentially creating a more permissive environment for criminal activities to flourish. The Taliban have also indicated an intention to increase their patrols, adding another layer of complexity to the security landscape.
Accusations of Taliban Involvement in Violence

While the government is engaged in peace talks with the Taliban, officials point to Taliban-linked groups as being responsible for a significant portion of the violent assaults. These attacks target government officials, peace activists, and academics, despite the February agreement between the Taliban and the United States that stipulated the group would not attack urban areas. The ongoing violence is seen by some as a tactic by the Taliban to exert leverage in the ongoing negotiations, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.

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Will Kabul’s crime wave worsen as US and foreign forces withdraw?

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