Will oil exports rise under the 60-day waiver?

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Oil exports are set to be allowed under the 60-day US waiver, but the information available does not quantify any rise.

The United States waived sanctions on Iran for 60 days starting Monday, which allows Tehran to sell oil and related products and receive payment for them. Iran’s foreign minister also stated on social media that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports. However, the available details do not provide figures or a clear forecast showing that oil exports will rise during the waiver period.
What the 60-day waiver changes for oil sales
The US Treasury announced a waiver until August 21 that permits Iran to sell oil and related products and to receive payment for those sales. This is the specific sanction relief tied to the interim economic step under the broader roadmap agreed at talks in Buergenstock.
How tanker activity and oil prices were moving on Monday
After the waiver took effect, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz started to pick up on Monday. Oil prices also resumed their slide, with markets settling 3 per cent lower on Monday after progress was reported.
What Iranian officials said about export waivers
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on social media that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports. The report also notes that the waiver includes the release of some frozen assets abroad and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan, but it does not translate those points into a stated export increase.
Why a rise is not confirmed by the provided details
While the waiver creates the legal and financial pathway for Iran to sell oil and receive payment, the reporting does not include export volumes, shipment counts, or a comparison against prior weeks. It also does not specify how much of Iran’s oil production would be sold during the 60 days, only that sales and related payments are allowed under the sanctions relief.

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Will oil exports rise under the 60-day waiver?

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