Will “retaliatory pollutions” likely erase environmental gains after the outbreak?

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"Retaliatory Pollutions" Could Erase Environmental Gains Post-Outbreak

Environmentalists caution that the significant reduction in carbon emissions observed in China due to the coronavirus outbreak may be short-lived. A potential government stimulus aimed at economic recovery, if it prioritizes boosting production from heavy industries, could counteract the environmental benefits achieved during the shutdown. This concern is rooted in the anticipated phenomenon of "retaliatory pollutions," where factories aggressively ramp up their output to recoup financial losses incurred during the period of reduced activity.
Understanding "Retaliatory Pollutions"

The term "retaliatory pollutions" refers to a specific pattern of economic behaviour observed after periods of enforced industrial slowdown. Following a shutdown, factories and industrial facilities, aiming to recover lost revenue and meet market demand, may operate at maximum capacity. This intensified production often involves a disproportionate increase in the burning of fossil fuels and the release of pollutants, effectively undoing previous emissions reductions. Li Shuo, a policy adviser for Greenpeace China, has described this as a "tested and proven pattern" where industries seek to compensate for downtime.
Historical Precedents for Post-Shutdown Emissions Surges

This pattern of increased pollution following an economic pause is not unprecedented. While the specific context of a global pandemic is unique, similar industrial responses have been noted after other significant disruptions. For instance, after periods of mandated factory closures due to environmental regulations or other economic shocks, a subsequent surge in production has often been documented. This surge typically leads to a temporary but significant spike in emissions as industries work to catch up, a phenomenon that environmental advocates fear will repeat itself on a larger scale after the current coronavirus crisis subsides.
Potential Scale and Environmental Impact

The potential environmental impact of such a surge in industrial activity could be substantial. During the initial weeks of the coronavirus outbreak, China's carbon emissions saw a dramatic decrease, with estimates suggesting a drop of at least 100 million metric tonnes, representing nearly six percent of global emissions from the same period in the previous year. Nitrogen dioxide emissions, a key indicator of fossil fuel combustion, also fell by 36 percent in the week following the Lunar New Year holidays. If industries engage in extensive "retaliatory pollutions" to compensate for losses, this progress could be rapidly reversed. The scale of economic disruption caused by the virus has been widespread, affecting key sectors like power generation, steel production, and oil refining, suggesting a significant potential for an equally significant rebound in emissions as these sectors attempt to recover.

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Will “retaliatory pollutions” likely erase environmental gains after the outbreak?

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