Will sea levels continue to rise despite zero emissions?

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Sea levels are expected to keep rising even if greenhouse gas emissions hit zero by 2030

Sea levels are projected to continue rising even in the extremely unlikely scenario where greenhouse gas emissions fall to zero by 2030. Research indicates that emissions from 2015 to 2030 would be enough to raise sea levels by 8 centimetres by 2100, and by 20 centimetres by 2300 compared with the 1986-2005 reference period. Even with zero emissions by 2030, sea levels are still expected to rise by at least 1 metre by 2300.
Emissions through 2030 are already “locked in” for later decades
The study projects that emissions between 2015 and 2030 would raise sea levels by 8 centimetres by 2100. It also projects a 20-centimetre rise by 2300 versus the 1986-2005 baseline. This framing treats sea level change as a slow process that continues long after emissions stop.
UN-backed estimates point to continued rise this century
UN-backed scientists predict a sea level increase of between 26 centimetres and 77 centimetres by the end of this century. The study’s authors describe this as part of a longer-term pattern, rather than a one-century-only effect. By comparison, oceans rose by around 20 centimetres during the 20th century.
Even a zero-emissions scenario does not stop the rise by 2300
In the extremely unlikely event that greenhouse gas emissions fall to zero in the next 11 years, sea levels are still expected to rise by at least 1 metre by 2300. The study also attributes about a quarter of that 1-metre rise to emissions from China, the United States, the European Union, Russia, and India over the preceding 40 years. This means earlier emissions continue to influence sea levels for centuries.
The system responds slowly, with multiple long-timescale processes
The research highlights that sea level rise is driven by complex phenomena that unfold over extremely long time scales. It notes that Antarctic ice is melting more slowly than Greenland, pointing to uneven behaviour across regions. The study argues that the long response time makes it possible for sea levels to keep increasing even after emissions are eliminated.

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Will sea levels continue to rise despite zero emissions?

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