Will the Philippines as Asean chair decide whether Min Aung Hlaing is invited?

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The Philippines, as Asean Chair, Will Decide on Min Aung Hlaing's Invitation to the Manila Summit

The Philippines, in its capacity as the Asean chair, will hold the authority to determine whether junta chief Min Aung Hlaing receives an invitation to the bloc's summit in Manila in November. This decision is not guaranteed and remains subject to the Philippines' final determination. The attendance of Myanmar's Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe at regional meetings in Bangkok signals a potential shift in Asean's unified stance on engaging with the pariah state.
Potential Diplomatic Choreography Towards Min Aung Hlaing's Summit Attendance

Richard Horsey, senior Asia advisor at the International Crisis Group, suggests that the current diplomatic movements, including the Myanmar Foreign Minister's participation in Bangkok talks, represent a calculated effort towards facilitating Min Aung Hlaing's presence alongside other Asean leaders. This proposed attendance is seen as a strategic objective within a broader diplomatic strategy.
Asean's Evolving Position Amidst Myanmar's Isolation

Myanmar has faced significant diplomatic isolation within Asean since the 2021 military coup that ousted the elected government. However, the recent installation of Min Aung Hlaing as civilian president in April, following restricted elections, has prompted neighbouring countries like Thailand to advocate for a gradual normalization of relations. The Bangkok meetings are intended to provide a platform for direct exchanges and to foster dialogue and reconciliation within Myanmar.
Uncertainty Surrounds Min Aung Hlaing's Direct Engagement with Asean Leaders

Despite the moves towards increased engagement, the prospect of Min Aung Hlaing attending the Asean summit in Manila is far from certain. The International Crisis Group has noted that the decision rests with the Philippines as the Asean chair, and an invitation is "by no means guaranteed." This follows Min Aung Hlaing's recent state visit to Laos, which has been characterized as a potential beginning of the end for Asean's previously firm stance against normalizing relations with Myanmar.

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Will the Philippines as Asean chair decide whether Min Aung Hlaing is invited?

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