Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen after the US-Iran deal?

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The Strait of Hormuz is expected to “completely open” after the US-Iran peace agreement is signed, but experts say a return to normal operations will take time.

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would “completely open” once the peace agreement is signed. The strait handles about a fifth of global crude, and expectations for the deal are tied to whether traffic through the waterway recovers steadily. Oil industry experts and shipping companies have cautioned that restoring normal operations after the strait’s near shutdown will take time.
Trump’s pledge links full reopening to the signing of the peace deal
Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” following the signing of the peace agreement. The timing is therefore tied to the planned official signing ceremony in Switzerland and the steps that follow it. The focus then turns to negotiations that include the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programme and a plan for lifting international economic sanctions.
A sustained rebound in strait traffic is the key sign the deal is holding
Market coverage highlights that a sustained recovery in strait traffic is the most credible evidence that the deal is holding. That implies investors are watching actual shipping movement rather than only political announcements. With oil prices already sensitive to deal developments, the pace of traffic recovery is treated as a practical indicator.
Industry and shipping firms warn the “normal operations” timeline is not immediate
Oil industry experts and shipping companies cautioned that returning to normal operations after a near shutdown will take time. Even with an agreement in place, the restoration of regular activity is not portrayed as instantaneous. The warning points to a transition period after operations are disrupted.
The reopening expectation sits alongside broader market uncertainty
The reopening outlook is being weighed as markets react to the US-Iran deal and upcoming peace talks. Oil prices edged up in early trade after earlier sharp declines linked to optimism about a lasting agreement. At the same time, uncertainty remains high around the deal’s durability and negotiations, with analysts noting prices can swing on setbacks.

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Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen after the US-Iran deal?

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