Will US jobless claims hit a 15-month low this week?

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US Jobless Claims Likely to Reach a 15-Month Low This Week

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the United States are anticipated to fall to their lowest point in approximately 15 months for the week ending June 5. This projected decline, with economists forecasting 370,000 seasonally adjusted claims, would represent the sixth consecutive weekly decrease. The figures indicate a continued abatement of layoffs as employers face challenges in finding staff.
Decline in New Unemployment Claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits is expected to drop to 370,000 for the week ended June 5. This would mark a significant decrease from the 385,000 claims filed in the preceding week. Such a figure would be the lowest recorded since mid-March 2020, a period when the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread business closures.
Factors Influencing Labor Market Dynamics

The ongoing decline in jobless claims reflects an economy where employers are actively seeking workers, contrasting with millions of unemployed individuals who remain at home. Reasons cited for this dynamic include difficulties in securing childcare, the availability of generous unemployment benefits, and lingering concerns about the virus, despite widespread vaccine accessibility. This situation arises as at least half of the US adult population has now been vaccinated, facilitating a broader economic reopening.
End of Federal Unemployment Programs in Some States

Further reductions in unemployment claims are anticipated due to the termination of federally funded unemployment programs in at least 25 states, including Florida and Texas. These states, which collectively represent about 40 percent of the US economy, are ending these benefits starting June 5. The early termination affects programs such as the weekly US$300 federal unemployment subsidy, which some businesses argue discourages the jobless from actively seeking employment.

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Will US jobless claims hit a 15-month low this week?

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